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Dai Bin: Analysis of Tourism Economic Operation in 2021 and Prospect in 2022
After the longest recovery and the most profound changes, we bid farewell to 2021; With the strongest confidence and longing for a better travel life, we embrace 2022. The following is Dai Bin, President of China Tourism Research Institute, ‘s analysis on the operation of tourism economy in 2021 and the outlook for 2022. The full text is as follows:
01
Tourism economy in 2021
The toughest challenge, the longest recovery
In the past two years, whether domestic tourism, inbound and outbound tourism, investment and employment; Whether it is travel agencies, online travel agents, star hotels, home stay, or scenic spots, theme parks, tourist vehicles and ships; The tourism industry has experienced the most severe challenges and the longest recovery in the past 40 years, whether in first tier cities, regional central cities, central and western regions, northeast regions and border areas. The first affected is inbound and outbound tourism. In addition to the necessary diplomatic, business, study abroad and border tourism, it has been almost completely suspended in the past two years.
In 2021, the number of inbound and outbound tourism is expected to be 31.98 million and 25.62 million respectively. However, these necessary rigid travel needs are difficult to be transformed into market opportunities for traditional tourism. The synchronous travel policy between the Macao Special Administrative Region and the mainland can boost confidence in the Greater Bay Area market in some periods, but its significance to the overall situation is not obvious. From the perspective of the domestic market, planes fly as usual, trains open as usual, and roads are not closed. The basic consumption of rigid travel such as official travel, business travel, education, migrant work and family visits still exists, and local leisure and short-range tourism are growing. However, for a long time, the tourism industry has taken the elastic needs of medium and long-distance sightseeing, leisure and vacation as the basic plate, and the rigid needs such as official travel, business travel and family travel are difficult to enter the vision of tourists, resulting in these data only having statistical significance but no obvious market significance.
From the data of holiday tourism market, the travel distance, destination recreation radius and per capita consumption show an accelerated contraction trend. Taking the National Day holidays in 2021 as an example, the average travel radius of urban and rural residents was 141.3 kilometers, a year-on-year decrease of 71.7 kilometers, a decrease of 33.66%; The recreational radius of the destination was 13.1km, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%. In the past two years, the “near travel, shallow demand and low consumption” represented by local tourism and short-range tourism has become the basic market for the survival of tourism. The original tourism investment, industrial supply and tourism demand increased simultaneously, and some deep-seated structural problems were obscured by the development speed. Now the demand has plummeted, but the supply can not be reduced for a while, and the gap will become larger and larger. Coupled with the expectations of tourists, residents and the government for the high-quality development of tourism, it is natural for entrepreneurs to swing their confidence.
The impact of the epidemic on tourism is not comparable to the political turmoil, SARS and financial crisis, and historical experience can not be directly used for reference. In the Spring Festival of 2020, in the face of the sudden encounter of COVID-19, no matter the industry or the system, there is no adequate preparation for the seriousness and long-term nature. Although the competent authorities issued relief policies such as suspending the quality deposit of travel agencies, and resumed intra provincial tourism in the first quarter and inter provincial tourism in the third quarter, the whole industry was dominated by pessimism in 2020 and faced the risk of fading confidence for many times. Compared with market depression, investment tightening, underemployment and shutdown, enterprise confidence and consumption expectation are the indicators that deserve our most attention. To tell the truth, I’m not afraid to hear bad news, but I’m afraid I won’t hear the sound. The whole system and industry are silent. That’s the most terrible thing. If the tourism dream of a well-off society disappears, and if the market confidence supporting high-quality development dissipates, that is the darkest moment of tourism.
From the market data and industrial trends in the past two years, the fundamentals of rigid travel demand are still there, and local leisure and short-range tourism have become new consumption growth points of the tourism economy. People have never paid so much attention to the beautiful scenery and daily life around them as they do today. Where the epidemic is controlled, where the cultural leisure and tourism consumption will recover rapidly, and where the tourism industry will show a climate of prosperity and development. During this year’s May Day holiday, 230 million domestic tourists visited the country, an increase of 119.7% year-on-year. According to the comparable caliber, it has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019 by 3 percentage points; The domestic tourism revenue reached 113.23 billion yuan, an increase of 138.1% year-on-year, and recovered to 77.0% in the same period before the epidemic according to comparable standards; Tourist satisfaction reached a record high of 84.8 points. This is not only an important turning point in the process of tourism recovery, but also a source of confidence for the tourism industry to adhere to high-quality development.
According to the results of the 2021 China Tourism collectivization forum held last month, more and more market players have launched a number of popular products in the integrated development of culture and tourism, scientific and technological empowerment and digital transformation, system reform and mechanism innovation under the guidance of the concept of host guest sharing, forming a number of replicable and popularized experiences. History has repeatedly proved and will continue to prove that confidence is more important than gold in the face of crises and challenges. Under the current situation, the industry should maintain confidence, the government should convey confidence and the society should inject confidence.
From the fourth quarter of the year, the year-on-year data of the past two years and the base ratio data of 2019, although the tourism consumption demand has yet to be released, the kinetic energy has yet to be accumulated, and the epidemic is still the biggest influencing factor, the tourism economy still maintains the process of fluctuating recovery in 2021. In the first three quarters, the national tourism economic operation comprehensive index (CTA-TEP) increased by 26.96 points year-on-year, crossed the boom and bust line and entered the “weak boom” range of 104.06 points. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists in the whole year will be 3.431 billion, and the tourism revenue will be 3.02 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19% and 35%, respectively, returning to 57% and 53% of the level in the same period in 2019.
02
Tourism economy in the past two years
The most firm confidence, the most real innovation
In the past two years, the tourism industry is changing from the unexpected epidemic encounter to the protracted war of coordinating epidemic prevention and control and returning to work. We have maintained the upward momentum of recovery, achieved phased victories and accumulated valuable experience. Whether it is the consumer, the administrative or the market, everyone is great and has laid the brand of the times in the great process of tourism anti epidemic. History will never forget the efforts made by tourists in the process of anti epidemic and recovery, nor will the Republic.
People’s yearning for a better travel life has never stopped, and the demand for leisure and vacation has never dissipated. This is the eternal confidence of the tourism industry to overcome all difficulties and challenges. Some people say that tourism is fragile, but I can’t see it. Tourism is sensitive and resilient. It will be closed like Mimosa in the face of ups and downs, but as long as there is sunshine, it will bloom again and become more and more resilient. Our confidence is real rather than illusory, and our resilience is lasting rather than short-lived. We should not only see the overall stagnation of inbound and outbound tourism and the overall contraction of medium and long-distance domestic tourism market during the epidemic, but also see the other side of strong demand in short-range tourism market and local leisure market.
According to the reception data of the scenic spot during the 60 day spring festival transportation in 2021, the average number of people per day is 6.6 million on weekdays, 10.9 million on weekends and 36.3 million during the Spring Festival. Zhangjiajie, Yili, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and other local areas will meet a relatively stable small peak of tourism and leisure after the sporadic epidemic is controlled every time. This means that the people have walked out of the initial panic and are eager to live a normal and good life during the normalization of the epidemic. In the new era of realizing a well-off society and building a modern socialist country in an all-round way, the people have the freedom from fear and the right to pursue happiness. The people’s yearning for a better life is not only the goal of our struggle, but also the driving force for us to move from victory to victory.
The entrepreneurial innovation of market players has never stopped, and the kinetic energy of cultural creation and scientific and technological innovation has been accelerating. This is a reliable force for tourism to overcome all difficulties. In the spring and Autumn period, city micro tourism and architecture readable, Ctrip’s star and rural construction, travel research tours, Kaiyuan resort, Nanjing Tourism Group’s “Legend of the Yangtze River”, “disappeared famous dishes” of South of the Five Ridges China World Hotel, Zhejiang Province’s “hundred counties thousand bowls”, four seasons Wen’s art collection and other cultural integration and innovation projects, as well as the opening of Beijing Universal Studios resort area, the 5th anniversary Disney celebration, The “ship theory” of Jiuzhou in Zhuhai, the strategic cooperation between Haichang Ocean Park and MBK, and the giant simulation device of Dalian Botao, let us see the beauty of culture and cultural self-confidence, and also see that the light of science and technology is shining on the road of travel and tourism.
At the same time, travel agencies and online travel agents move towards the broad travel service industry, star hotels and home stay to the real tourism accommodation industry, and scenic spots begin to transform to a better living space shared by hosts and guests, which means that the typical tourism industry is no longer obsessed with the past, but embraces the infinite future. Tourism is a modern service industry with a high degree of marketization and strong economic attributes. People will leave and enter at any time. Whoever can meet the people’s new expectations for a better life is the main force and direct force. In the past two years, we are delighted to see more new forces join the process of tourism recovery, and more young people are willing to let their youth burn in the fire of tourism innovation. It is precisely because of the endless entrepreneurship and continuous innovation that the tourism industry is powerful rather than weak. The construction of modern tourism system is a pragmatic process rather than a superficial slogan.
The party and the government have been paying attention to, caring for and supporting the development of tourism. The policy of relief has never been weakened, and the measures to promote recovery and development have been strengthened. While doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and safe production, the central and local governments pay more attention to the relief and rehabilitation of the main players in the tourism market. The fiscal, financial and industrial policies for the majority of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises are stable and inclusive. Even if there have been many rounds of travel related outbreaks since the National Day holiday, the country has not stopped cross provincial tourism, but adopted a more targeted circuit breaker and recovery mechanism. While continuing the existing temporary return policy of quality margin, the competent department of the industry has also introduced more innovative measures and strengthened planning and investment guidance in combination with the work deployment of “I do practical things for the masses” in the study and education of party history. The construction of the Great Wall, the Long March, the Grand Canal and the Yellow River National Cultural Park, the establishment of national and provincial tourist resorts, night and cultural tourism consumption demonstration areas, national and provincial tourism and leisure blocks, especially world-class tourist cities, world-class tourist scenic spots and resorts, Winter Olympic tourism, red tourism, rural tourism and research travel, continue to demonstrate the country’s determination and confidence in developing tourism.
Today’s world is undergoing great changes that have not been seen in a century, but the time and trend are on our side. This is our determination and confidence to overcome all difficulties and challenges. The state’s support for tourism is clearly visible, which is opposite to the main body of consumption and market.
03
Tourism economy in 2022
Cautious optimism and confidence in development
The epidemic will still be the biggest variable affecting the development of tourism economy in the new year. The tourism market will face more difficulties and challenges, but the upward process of recovery will not stop and the momentum of innovation and development will not weaken.
The basic market of rigid travel will be further consolidated, and the new demand for cultural leisure, scientific and technological experience and vacation consumption will be further released. The tourism market in 2022 will probably not have a lively scene of retaliatory rebound, but the people’s longing for a better life and the desire for a normal life will continue to release and grow, promoting the steady recovery of the tourism market. The epidemic prevention and control policy of dynamic clearing, as well as the precise prevention and control of scientific and technological assistance and big data support, will create a more favorable market environment for tourism consumption. The tourism dream of a well-off society has been integrated into the daily life of the people and will bloom and bloom in spring. The leisure and vacation of urban residents and the sightseeing and leisure of rural residents will jointly support the tourism market in the new era. From the existing leading indicators such as the willingness of urban and rural residents to travel, the search volume of tourism destinations and the reservation volume of tourism products, an era of market sinking and consumption upgrading is coming.
Of course, we should also scientifically study and judge the difficulties and challenges next year, especially the changes of the epidemic situation as an exogenous variable, as well as various possible events of black swan and grey rhinoceros, which may disrupt the rhythm of tourism recovery at any time. The downward pressure of the economy in the past two years has been transmitted to terminal consumption, including tourism. The reduction of discretionary income has led to the contraction of tourism consumption scale, consumption structure and consumption behavior.
Local leisure and short-range tourism, individual travel and self-help tourism, family leisure and cultural experience have become more and more obvious trends, while the market players are not fully prepared for new demands such as self driving tourism, research and study travel, summer resort, home stay +, special train travel and so on. Although entrepreneurs and innovators feel the market opportunity, they do not know how to grasp it, let alone how to find the corresponding business model. Host guest sharing, content creation, digital transformation and other concepts are a long and risky process from putting forward to consensus, then to market introduction and commercial realization. Entrepreneurs and tourists also need a thrilling leap from products to commodities, from use value to exchange value.
The transformation, innovation and high-quality development process of the tourism industry, including the digital transformation driven by science and technology, will be further accelerated. More institutions will bring new elements and new driving forces such as capital, technology and culture, and gradually become new market players in the process of tourism entrepreneurship and innovation. If someone comes, someone will leave. In this process, those who stick to the old thinking, always want to wake up and return to the past, always want the government to save themselves, and those who are miserable in the face of crises and challenges will eventually be eliminated by the market. Competition is the game of the strong. If you want to find new opportunities in the crisis and open a new situation in the changing situation, you must have a pain threshold much higher than that of ordinary people. Those who carry the weight in the process of recovery will eventually get the glory they deserve. When the epidemic prevention and control enters its third year, more and more enterprises will recognize this and join the process.
The inbound and outbound tourism market will probably continue the performance of the past two years, but international tourism exchanges with Hong Kong and Macao will be more frequent. In the new year, the government will launch Policy Research on the inbound and outbound market in due time according to the needs of epidemic prevention and control and the judgment of the situation, but bilateral and multilateral tourism exchanges will still be mainly online. One belt, one road, is the one that deserves our attention. Bilateral and multilateral tourism exchanges such as Italy, Greece and central and Eastern Europe, as well as Caribbean regions such as Cuba and Dominica, as well as China Africa tourism cooperation are also ready to go. It is reasonable to believe that the government will make more voices in the multi frame and home diplomacy of RCEP, APEC and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The enthusiasm of Party committees and governments at all levels to develop tourism will be higher, and the measures to promote the recovery, revitalization and high-quality development of tourism will be more pragmatic. In the new year, the construction of world-class tourist cities, world-class scenic spots and resorts, national tourist cities and neighborhoods, Winter Olympics tourism, rural tourism, red tourism, as well as the Great Wall, the Long March, the Grand Canal, the Yellow River and Beijing Zhangjiakou Cultural Tourism Belt will be promoted in a pragmatic manner, which will converge into a new driving force of tourism economic growth driven by investment and innovation. At the same time, we should also pay attention to how to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of institutional innovation and industrial policies, so that local governments, enterprises and tourists have more sense of gain.
Taking into account the macroeconomic, epidemic impact and market factors, it is estimated that the number of domestic tourists will reach 3.980 billion in 2022, and the domestic tourism revenue will reach 3.81 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19% and 27% respectively, returning to nearly 70% of the level in the same period in 2019. The number of inbound and outbound tourists is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year, returning to about 25% in 2019.
04
Implement the spirit of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference
Steadily promote the recovery of tourism economy and accelerate the construction of modern tourism system
First, adhere to the main tone of economic work, which is to ensure stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, coordinate epidemic prevention and control and resume work and business, and put the relief of tourism enterprises in a more important position. Do a good job in the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees” of the tourism industry, do everything possible to ensure that tourism employment does not decline, and that the main bodies of the tourism market, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, do not go bankrupt on a large scale and dissipate systematically. Release the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan as soon as possible, and clarify the guiding ideology, development direction and optimization path of tourism development under the new situation. Publicize and implement the spirit of the upcoming meeting of directors of the National Tourism Administration, convey development confidence through multiple channels, and form an ideological consensus and spiritual momentum for tourism economic recovery.
The second is to implement more precise epidemic prevention and control measures and more active policies to return to work, so as to avoid aggravating the fear of tourists and the panic of the industry due to the recurrence of scattered epidemics. Ten million policies, the first is the market. When the market recovers and expectations stabilize, enterprises naturally know how to do business. In order to maintain the normal rhythm of economic development, carefully step on the “emergency brake” at the national and provincial levels, and “click the brake” with the rhythm of epidemic prevention and control in prefectural and municipal administrative regions. While stabilizing the rigid travel base market, we will try our best to release the flexible demand for sightseeing, leisure and vacation. Vigorously develop new business forms such as food, research, art, fashion, intangible cultural heritage, red, ice and snow, summer vacation and sports, and formulate “tourism +” and “tourism ×” with strong pertinence and easy implementation Special action plan for business cultivation. Pay attention to the new tourism demand of rural residents, expand the space for new tourism consumption such as individual tourists, self-help and self driving, and stimulate new demand with new supply.
Third, create the institutional environment, market environment and project support necessary for tourism recovery and innovative development for market players. We will accelerate the construction of major projects such as world-class tourism cities, scenic spots and resorts, National Tourism and leisure cities and blocks, take the lead in building a world-class tourism destination first demonstration area, and guide the construction of world-class tourism groups and the digital transformation of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. Increase investment support within the central budget and improve the construction level of tourism infrastructure and service facilities. Both infrastructure construction and public services should be open to all kinds of state-owned and private tourism enterprises, especially travel service providers, tourism accommodation enterprises, scenic spots and theme parks, and guide, encourage and support new investment institutions and technology R & D institutions to carry out tourism innovation. Based on the continuation of existing policies such as the tourism development fund and the temporary withdrawal of tourism quality deposit, we should study and release special policies for tourism enterprises to relieve difficulties and stabilize tourism employment.
Fourth, strengthen scientific and technological innovation, accelerate the construction of a modern tourism system, and cultivate a number of world-class tourism enterprises. Strengthen scientific and technological innovation and improve the level of tourism equipment manufacturing industry. We cannot use the thinking of primary industry and traditional development and construction methods to build a modern tourism system. Without scientific and technological support and digital transformation, there will be no development of modern tourism. Whether it is yachts, cruise ships, RV, camping sites, general aircraft, unmanned aircraft and other tourism equipment, or personal equipment for ice and snow tourism, mountain tourism and summer tourism, or the improvement of modern management ability. Without the support of 5g, Beidou navigation, big data and artificial intelligence, the development mode and operation mode of tourism will linger in the tradition. We should guide, encourage and support the modern transformation of tourism and the training and improvement of personnel quality and professional skills. We should also pay attention to guiding, encouraging and supporting new investment institutions and technology R & D institutions to enter the tourism field for entrepreneurship and innovation.
Fifth, strengthen macro-control and micro supervision, especially the construction of micro supervision system, and promote the modernization of governance system and governance capacity in the field of tourism. Based on the results of eliminating unreasonable low-cost tourism in 2021, focus on the tourism market of new formats such as individual tourists, self-help and self driving, and improve the ability of prediction, early warning and prevention. We should not only manage 4% of group customers, but also serve 96% of individual customers; We should not only manage the small space of scenic spots and resorts, but also make good use of the new space for a better life shared by hosts and guests; We should not only manage the small main bodies of tour guides and travel agencies, but also cultivate the large main bodies of the emerging and diversified tourism market. It is necessary for cultural and tourism departments at all levels to establish and improve the regular analysis, research and judgment system of tourism economic operation, use the reform of demand side statistics system and big data construction to guide the whole tourism statistics, market construction and market research and judgment, focus on the cross cycle adjustment of macro policies and industrial policies, and maintain the operation of tourism economy in a reasonable range.
Sixth, strengthen the study and judgment of the world tourism situation and respond to international concerns related to tourism issues in a timely manner. The Chinese government and the tourism industry should and can contribute Chinese wisdom and solutions to the recovery of the global tourism market and the high-quality development of world tourism. We should innovate ways, tell the story of China’s tourism in the new era, and make necessary policy reserves for the development of inbound tourism market after the epidemic.
Seventh, build contemporary tourism development theory, improve tourism statistics system, and cultivate strategic scientists and industry leaders in the field of tourism. In order to do a good job in tourism at present and in the future, we need development concept guidance, theoretical guidance and professional support suitable for the new era. We should not only systematically answer the major practical problems such as the connotation of well-off tourism, the indicators of high-quality development, the construction of world-class tourism cities, world-class scenic spots and resorts, and world-class tourism groups, but also deeply study the major theoretical problems of what, why, what to do and what to rely on in contemporary tourism development. We should lead the theoretical and academic circles to carry out theoretical discussion on the basic concepts, basic theories and basic methods of tourism, and form a discipline system, academic system and discourse system with Chinese style and Chinese style, so as to provide strong ideological force and spiritual kinetic energy for the innovative development of tourism in the new era.
